The US jobs report: what it is and why markets watch it
The monthly US jobs report shows how many people are being hired and how many are out of work. Here is what nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment rate mean, why they come from two surveys, and why they move markets so much.
By Akash Soni
Published
What the jobs report is
The US jobs report, officially called the Employment Situation, is a monthly snapshot of the American labour market from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. It usually lands on the first Friday of the month, at 8:30 in the morning Eastern time, and few scheduled data releases move stock and bond markets more. It answers two simple questions: are people finding work, and how many.
The two headline numbers
Two figures get the attention. Nonfarm payrolls is the number of jobs the economy added or lost during the month, across almost every sector except farming. The unemployment rate is the share of people who want a job and are looking but do not have one. A strong report means plenty of new jobs and a low or falling unemployment rate; a weak one means the opposite.
Why there are two surveys
A quirk worth knowing: the two headline numbers come from two different surveys. Payrolls come from a survey of businesses, while the unemployment rate comes from a survey of households. Most months they broadly agree, but because they are measured differently they can occasionally point in slightly different directions, which is why economists look at both rather than just the headline.
Why markets watch so closely
The jobs report matters because it shapes what the Federal Reserve is likely to do with interest rates. A hot labour market can add to inflation pressure, nudging the Fed to keep rates high or raise them; a weakening one gives the Fed room to cut. Because interest rates drive the value of almost everything, from bond yields to share prices, investors read the jobs report through the Fed's eyes. Our explainer on how the Federal Reserve works covers that link.
Good news can be bad news
This is the part that confuses newcomers. In normal times, strong hiring lifts markets. But when inflation is the worry, a surprisingly strong jobs report can send stocks down, because it makes rate cuts less likely. Investors are not reacting to the jobs themselves so much as to what they imply for interest rates. Whether a number is read as good or bad depends on the backdrop, which is why the same report can get opposite reactions in different years.
What else to read beyond the headline
Beneath the two headline figures sit details that often matter more: wage growth, which feeds into inflation; the share of people working or looking for work, called the participation rate; and revisions to previous months, which can quietly change the picture. A single month is noisy, so economists watch the trend across several.
Why one month can mislead
The jobs report is powerful, but a single month is a noisy signal. The figures are estimates drawn from surveys, so they carry a margin of error, and they are revised in the following months as more responses arrive, sometimes substantially. Weather, holidays and one-off events can distort a single reading. That is why economists watch the three-month average and the direction of travel rather than reacting to one headline, and why a market that lurches on the first print sometimes reverses when the revisions land.
The bottom line
The jobs report is a monthly read on hiring and unemployment, built from two surveys, and it is one of the most market-moving releases on the calendar because it steers the Federal Reserve. The trick to reading it is to ask not just whether the number was strong, but what it means for interest rates, and to watch the trend rather than one noisy month. The glossary and the rates and returns page can help you follow it.
Frequently asked questions
What is the US jobs report?
It is the monthly Employment Situation report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, usually released on the first Friday of the month. It shows how many jobs the economy added or lost and the unemployment rate, and it is a key read on the labour market.
What are nonfarm payrolls?
Nonfarm payrolls is the number of jobs added or lost across almost every sector except farming during the month. It is the most watched figure in the jobs report and comes from a survey of businesses.
Why does the jobs report move markets?
Because it shapes what the Federal Reserve is likely to do with interest rates. Strong hiring can add to inflation pressure and keep rates high, while weak hiring gives room to cut, and rates drive the value of almost everything.
Why can a strong jobs report send stocks down?
When inflation is the worry, strong hiring makes rate cuts less likely, which markets can read as bad news. Investors are reacting less to the jobs themselves than to what they imply for interest rates, so context decides the reaction.
Sources
What each one is, and whose it is.
- 1
Employment Situation, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
DocumentationIndependent of the vendor - 2
Nonfarm Payrolls: definition and how it works, Investopedia
OtherIndependent of the vendor